NODO Weekly: Institutions, Prediction Markets, and Stablecoins on Ethereum

Institutions now control over 10% of Bitcoin’s total supply—and when you adjust for lost coins, their grip tightens to 13.4%. Meanwhile, Polymarket is proving it's not just a one-cycle wonder, maintaining strong volume even after the U.S. election. 

Ethereum’s TVL has quietly evolved: DEXs have collapsed, but stablecoins, lending, and staking are thriving. This week’s charts show where the crypto narrative is shifting—often where people aren't looking.

1. Bitcoin’s Institutional Supply Sink

The old adage that "institutions are coming" has steadily materialized this cycle. Over a year has passed since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, and we've seen a wave of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) copycats follow a familiar playbook: selling stocks or issuing bonds to fund Bitcoin purchases.

Today, institutions collectively own over 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply. This includes ETFs, publicly traded companies, and even nation-states holding BTC positions.

Focusing on publicly listed companies alone, they collectively control more than 700,000 BTC—representing 3.33% of Bitcoin’s 21 million maximum supply. Strategy leads the pack, holding 538,200 BTC, or 2.56% of all existing Bitcoin.

ETFs currently hold approximately 965,000 BTC, just under 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with BlackRock leading the pack, owning over 500,000 BTC.

When combined with corporate treasury holdings, the total rises to 1.67 million BTC—about 8% of the 21 million maximum supply.

Adding nation-state holdings, which account for around 542,000 BTC, the figure climbs even higher. Altogether, institutions, ETFs, and governments now control roughly 2.2 million BTC, representing 10.14% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

While Bitcoin’s maximum supply is capped at 21 million, not all of it is truly accessible. According to the 10+ Years HODL Wave—which tracks coins that haven’t moved in over a decade—more than 3.4 million BTC are likely lost forever. This includes Satoshi’s original holdings, lost hardware wallets, forgotten seed phrases, and other inaccessible coins.

With approximately 19.8 million BTC currently in circulation and an estimated 17.15% presumed lost, the effective circulating supply drops to around 16.45 million BTC. Using this adjusted figure, the share of Bitcoin held by institutions, ETFs, and nation-states rises to 13.44%. In other words, roughly one out of every 7.4 accessible BTC is now controlled by major entities.

2. Polymarket Post-Election Check-In

It’s been nearly six months since the U.S. election reignited interest in prediction markets—particularly Polymarket, crypto’s go-to platform for trading on real-world events. During the election cycle, Polymarket saw explosive activity: over $3.7B in election contract volume, $350M traded on election day alone, with 50,000 active wallets and 500,000+ daily transactions.

But with the election hype now behind us—how’s Polymarket holding up?

According to DeFi Llama, Polymarket still dominates the on-chain predictions market, accounting for 79% of total TVL ($105M out of $133M). And unlike many post-cycle platforms, it hasn’t fizzled out. Since January, daily trading volume has remained steady, averaging between $20M and $30M—showing there’s lasting demand for betting on world events, not just political cycles.

Cumulative users on Polymarket have plateaued, sitting at the same level as they were in October, while monthly active traders have returned to where they were in November last year.

Interestingly, 20% of daily wallets have never interacted with a U.S. election market, suggesting two possibilities: either these are entirely new users who missed last year’s election frenzy, or they simply aren’t here for political markets at all.

This stands in sharp contrast to what happened with Augur in 2020. Back then, Augur was the leading prediction market—but after the election, it experienced a dramatic collapse. TVL fell 20x, plunging from 19,000 ETH to just 700 ETH, and the platform never recovered. Polymarket, by comparison, appears far more resilient.

Despite Polymarket’s TVL dropping sharply from its $520M peak on election day to $95M just a week later, the decline didn’t spiral. Instead, TVL has held steady within a range and has gradually climbed back to around $105M today.

Sports has now overtaken politics as the leading driver of volume on the platform, followed by crypto and pop culture markets. Political and election-related markets now make up less than 40% of total trading volume—a significant shift from the pre-election period, when they accounted for over 90%.

3. Ethereum’s Stablecoin Dominance

For context, TVL (Total Value Locked) represents the dollar value of assets deposited into Ethereum-based applications—this includes stablecoin issuers, lenders, stakers, and liquidity providers.

Today, 65% of Ethereum’s TVL is made up of stablecoins, totaling $131B, which has now surpassed its previous peak of $123B in 2022.

In contrast, DEX TVL on Ethereum peaked at $44B in 2021, but has since fallen by 88%, sitting at just $5B today. This drop reflects a few key trends:

• The rise of capital-efficient DEXs

• Liquidity shifting to other ecosystems like Solana

• And perhaps, Ethereum is losing ground in the DEX wars.

Let’s compare Ethereum’s 2022 landscape to today to see where it's gaining traction—because while it’s clearly losing ground on the DEX front, there are bright spots elsewhere.

2022

• Stablecoin TVL: $123B

• DEX TVL: $28B

• Lending & RWA TVL: $22B

• Liquid Staking TVL: $6B

2025

• Stablecoin TVL: $132B

• DEX TVL: $5B

• Lending & RWA TVL: $43B

• Liquid Staking TVL: $25B

Stablecoins have grown by 7.3% since their February 2022 peak. Decentralized exchange (DEX) TVL, on the other hand, has plummeted by 82%. 

Lending and real-world asset (RWA) protocols have nearly doubled, increasing by 95%. Meanwhile, liquid staking has experienced explosive growth, surging by 316%. In short, everything is growing—except DEXs.

Written by Pascal Abams — Research Analyst at NODO. I research on-chain trends, market narratives, and investment opportunities in crypto. If you have thoughts, insights, or just want to connect, reach out

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Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Crypto investments carry high risk; always conduct thorough research.

Here’s to a groundbreaking 2025🧡
The NODO Team

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