NODO Weekly: Narratives, Numbers & Near Misses

This week’s charts dive into three powerful narratives across crypto. Prediction markets are back in the spotlight with Polymarket and Kalshi hitting unicorn status. 

Hyperliquid now commands 60% of all perp DEX volume—up from just 13% early last year. And we revisit the "flippening" narrative, with Bitcoin still far from overtaking gold, and Ethereum’s closest shot now a distant memory.

1. Prediction markets are heating up again.

If you were like Udi and thought prediction markets were a one-time wonder during the U.S. elections last year, I don’t blame you. Polymarket’s volume did fall from a peak of $2.6B in November to around $1B today.

We’ve covered prediction markets in a past issue. But it’s time to revisit them—not just Polymarket, but also Kalshi. For those unfamiliar, Kalshi is like Polymarket’s TradFi sibling. It offers a similar product, but wrapped in a suit and tie for the regulated finance crowd.

Both Polymarket and Kalshi have either raised or are in the process of raising fresh capital—at billion-dollar valuations. They’ve officially entered unicorn territory.

Polymarket is reportedly raising $200M at a $1B valuation, led by Founders Fund. Kalshi, on the other hand, secured $185M at a $2B valuation, with Paradigm leading the round. The market seems to be valuing both platforms in the same league, despite their differences.

Just before this funding news, X (formerly Twitter) announced a partnership with Polymarket. The collaboration integrates real-time prediction data, Grok’s AI analysis, and X posts into a unified product delivering live, data-driven insights.

And here’s how the Polymarket intern responded to Udi:

Back in October and November, U.S. election markets made up over 90% of Polymarket’s total volume. That’s what led Udi to make the comment above—based on the assumption that Polymarket would fade after the elections, or at least see a major drop in usage.

And to some extent, Udi was right. Platform volume has fallen 62% from its peak.

But what most people didn’t anticipate—or simply overlooked—was the quiet rise in non-election activity. Wallets engaging with non-election markets have been steadily increasing.

The chart above compares wallets that have interacted with U.S. election markets to those that haven’t. While wallets aren’t a perfect proxy for users, they offer a decent signal.

What stands out is that over 20% of active wallets today have never touched a U.S. election market—not during last year’s cycle, and not now. That share has been rising steadily since November.

This suggests Polymarket is attracting a new cohort of users—people who either don’t care much about U.S. politics or aren’t motivated enough to bet on it.

It also points to a healthy diversification: more users are betting on other types of events, which means platform activity is becoming less dependent on a single narrative. That’s a good sign for long-term growth.

2. Hyperliquid Hype

Sealaunch just dropped their Hyperliquid dashboard—and it’s worth a look.

Most of us have heard how big Hyperliquid is. But without numbers, it’s hard to grasp. And honestly, even with numbers, scale can feel abstract. That’s where charts and context come in.

Fortunately, we now have both.

Hyperliquid has processed around $1.6 trillion in trading volume over the past year. Yes, trillion with a T.

In just the past month alone, it’s done $208 billion—only a few billion shy of its all-time high of $248 billion in May.

Hyperliquid has now generated $310 million in cumulative revenue—$56 million of that in June alone. That’s just shy of its $66 million all-time high in May.

What’s more striking? Nearly $300 million of that total was earned this year alone.

So yes—Hyperliquid is big. But "big" is always relative.

When you stack it against the rest of the perp DEX ecosystem, the scale becomes clearer: Hyperliquid currently commands 60% of all perpetuals trading volume. At the start of 2024, that number was just 13.6%.

That’s not just growth. That’s dominance

3. The Flippening that never flipped 

One of the most persistent narratives we’ve heard—especially since Bitcoin’s early days—is the idea of the Bitcoin-to-gold flippening. The concept is simple: Bitcoin is digital gold, and like other digital counterparts, it should eventually surpass the analog version in value.

After all, when has the digital version of something ever remained less valuable than the analog one for long?

Bitcoin is still on that path. As of now, it’s worth around 9.4% of gold’s market cap—$2.09 trillion for Bitcoin versus $22.35 trillion for gold.

Another flippening narrative that once dominated headlines—but has since faded—is Ethereum flipping Bitcoin. That conversation has taken a back seat this cycle, with the ETH/BTC ratio down more than 50% from its 2021 peak.

But the idea of ETH overtaking BTC didn’t start last cycle. It actually gained more traction during the 2017–2018 cycle—the one where Ethereum truly took off after its launch.

Ethereum actually came very close to flipping Bitcoin, within just a 17% gap. Eight years ago, on June 12, 2017, Bitcoin’s market cap was $44.3 billion, while Ethereum’s stood at $36.8 billion.

Had Bitcoin moved sideways and ETH climbed just $70 more to reach $470, Ethereum would have overtaken Bitcoin and claimed the top spot as the world’s largest crypto.

That dream has largely been put on pause. Today, Ethereum makes up just 13% of Bitcoin’s market cap—a far cry from the days when the flippening felt within reach.

It’s no surprise the ETH-over-BTC narrative has gone quiet—except, perhaps, among TradFi newcomers who need a compelling story to pitch as they enter the crypto space.

Written by Pascal Abams — Research Analyst at NODO. I research on-chain trends, market narratives, and investment opportunities in crypto. If you have thoughts, insights, or just want to connect, reach out.

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